Tesla starts Optimus production at Fremont. 1M-unit annual capacity.

Elon Musk confirmed Optimus production will begin at Fremont in late July or August 2026 — about four months after the last Model S and X roll off the line in early May [Electrek].

── What shipped ──

• First-gen production line is designed for 1 million robots per year annual capacity
• Replaces the Model S and Model X production lines at Fremont
• Optimus consists of 10,000 unique parts on a new production line
• Second factory under construction at Giga Texas, production targeted summer 2027
• Long-term capacity goal: 10M units per year on the second-gen Texas line [Robot Report]

Musk declined to provide a 2026 unit target, calling it "literally impossible to predict" given the new line and parts complexity. Initial production was described as "quite slow."

The stated goal: "Optimus useful outside of Tesla sometime next year" — the first concrete external-deployment timeline.

── Why it matters ──

The production cadence is the actual story. Tesla converting the S/X line — Tesla's most prestigious production assets — to Optimus is a higher-conviction commitment than any keynote. Capital expenditure of this size signals internal belief that humanoid robotics is the next $X-trillion category, regardless of whether near-term unit economics work.

Three things to watch through 2026:

• Initial production volume. Musk's "quite slow" framing suggests sub-10,000 units in 2026. Anything north of that beats expectations.
• Internal deployment first. Optimus working in Tesla factories — even narrowly, on simple skills — produces useful training data and provides revenue-substituting labour without requiring external customer trust.
• Pricing disclosure. Tesla has indicated $20K–$30K target pricing. The first commercial unit price will reset the entire humanoid-robotics competitive set.

For competitors (Figure, 1X, Apptronik, Sanctuary), Optimus production at scale changes the funding and partnership calculus. The market is no longer "first to ship a humanoid"; it is "first to ship 100K humanoids."

── Editor's take ──

The Optimus 2026 numbers will not look impressive — sub-10K units, mostly internal deployment, first external customers in late 2026 at the earliest. The interesting metric is whether the Fremont line reaches 1M-unit annualised throughput by the end of 2027. If it does, the humanoid robotics market is real and Tesla owns the manufacturing learning curve. If it doesn't, this is another autonomy-class promise that misses by years.